Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Magic may also be East's team of the future


Now that the Cleveland Cavaliers' season has plummeted from chalk celebration into chalk outline, an uncertain future may await the NBA's Eastern Conference.
Even if LeBron James shrugs off the woo factor of free agency, his Cavs may not qualify as the conference's near-future bully. The co-stars from a 66-win regular season no longer seem capable of inspiring confidence in Cleveland fans or appreciation from the Cavs' knee-With Anderson Varejao prepared to opt out and Zydrunas Ilgauskas reaching the stage where he'll even start falling down in slow motion, LBJ's front line looks more vulnerable than ever. And a few more backcourt injuries may be required before another Cavalier not named LeBron is summoned as an All-Star alternate.
So, if we dare to diminish Cleveland's status as a conference favorite next season, which team is equipped to step in? The obvious pick is Stan Van Gundy's Orlando Magic. Well, we're making an assumption that by qualifying for the NBA Finals, Stan is temporarily immune from alienating the franchise's star player and sabotaging his job security.
Orlando's rise into the current and future spotlight was achieved when the aforementioned star player, 23-year-old center Dwight Howard, put up 40 points and 14 rebounds in the Magic's Game 6 triumph over the Cavs in the Eastern Conference finals.
With Howard not reaching 24 until early December, the Magic should enjoy several seasons of high-level running and jumping before the landings that attend his many high-altitude efforts begin compromising those knees. When that occurs, Dwight will be downgraded to interior brute after spending several campaigns as an interior brute with superior speed and ups.
Before that sorry day arrives, Howard has plenty of room for skill development. Unless he chooses to spend his summers portraying a rappin' genie with attitude in inferior Hollywood film projects, Dwight will prepare for further greatness by improving his low-post footwork (the spin move is a bit high, thus the balance issues). Accuracy on those serial jump hooks can only improve before Howard even begins to think of adding a face-up jumper.jerk critics.The immediate correction should include free-throw technique (somebody please make this guy drive his elbow up past his eyebrows when he shoots ... I mean ... seriously!)
Anyway, when charting reasons for near-future Orlando optimism, we can include the long-term contract of power-shooting forward Rashard Lewis (more on him later), the late-first-round drafting skill that netted two-guard Courtney Lee and the return of point guard Jameer Nelson, who is locked in for an additional four seasons at a reasonable average of 7 million scoots per.
Orlando also has high-level wing sub Mickael Pietrus for two seasons at $5.3 million each year and a third-year, player option for the same amount.
Having Pietrus on the books is nice because the bad news regarding the Magic's future may push him into the starting lineup.
Oh, you just know this is about money.
Let's begin with the NBA's Luxury Tax Threshold, a Rubicon of no happy return that was rumored to reach the tidy sum of, oh, $76 million (give or take) for next season. With the dollar-for-dollar penalty starring down every owner in the league, Orlando was preparing to enter next season with about $70 million already committed to returning personnel.
The current list includes forward Hedo Turkoglu at $7 million and change.
However, this final season on Hedo's current deal is a player option that allows him to test a free-agent market that (still) might generate as much as $10 million per year for a skilled three with Finals chops.
With a few other non-rotation roster spots left to fill before next season, re-signing Turkoglu for market value would push Orlando over the projected LTT. But here's the really good news ... the readjusted projection could push the threshold down about $10 million.
It also should be noted that any idea of Hedo putting his arms around a home-town discount may seem like quite a reach. Sure, Turkoglu would be wise to understand how well he fits the Magic system and so forth, but his agent is quite aware that teammate Lewis will be compensated at more than $85 million over the next four seasons.
Playoff harmony haFinancial concerns could erase the dream of superb point-guard depth, too. Nelson, if healthy, makes Orlando solid for years, but Rafer Alston — who's owed $5.2 million next season — seems less attractive than Anthony Johnson taking limiting minutes at $2.1M.
But Alston's fine work in Nelson's absence should guarantee interest from several playmaking-starved franchises around the NBA.
For the record, Orlando checks in with zero selections for this month's draft, so acquiring cheap labor by this means would require a deal.
Yeah, lurking as a conference heavyweight requires any franchise to pass several cap-related stress tests. While we're far from declaring Turkoglu a goner, we might as well imagine the future Magic working with an improved Howard, a repaired Nelson, a maturing Lee and sweet-shooting Lewis, who — at 30 — should be able to continue outrunning power forwards and making threes for a couple of additional seasons.
With Howard dominating the inside, that may be enough for the Magic to attract the favorite's nod. And before we presume a multi-Finals rivalry could be brewing with Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers, please note that the Western Conference champs have $74 million committed for next year without free-agents-to-be Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza.
In predicting future domination, all we seem truly prepared to claim is the near certainty that financial issues should make LeBron too pricey for Orlando and L.A.s a funny way of becoming tone deaf in July.

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