CONAKRY, Guinea — Even before Guinea's military strongman was wounded in an assassination attempt and airlifted to Morocco for emergency surgery, top diplomats were discussing how to force him out.
One option: Offer Capt. Moussa "Dadis" Camara a villa in another African country to get him to leave the nation he has terrorized for the past 11 months.
Now that Camara is in a Morocco hospital with a bullet wound to the head, some diplomats and experts say this is the best thing that could have happened to Guinea, offering the West African country a chance to rid itself of military rule. They say that even if the rogue leader does fully recover, the international community will pressure Morocco to keep him from returning.
"The international community was looking for a way to ease him out," said Africa expert Peter Pham, director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs at James Madison University. "When it became clear he didn't want to leave, they were even looking into the possibility of shelling him out. This turn of events has just made it a lot easier. Now he is out of the way."
A delegation of foreign diplomats, including a top U.S. State Department official, will meet Sunday to try to hammer out a plan to return Guinea to civilian rule. The meeting in neighboring Burkina Faso is the most recent in ongoing negotiations between the military junta and the country's opposition aimed at finding a solution to Guinea's political crisis.
The talks have so far failed to produce a clear timetable for when the military will step down. But those returning to the negotiating table this weekend say the dynamics have changed now that Camara appears to be incapacitated.
The 45-year-old has not spoken publicly since being shot in the head by his top aide on Dec. 3, leading many to speculate he is in a coma. The country's spokesman said he will return to Guinea "soon," but a doctor who saw Camara's CAT scan said the leader suffered a serious brain injury and is unlikely to return for a long time — if ever.
Camara seized power in a coup nearly a year ago, just hours after the death of the country's former strongman Lansana Conte. He promised to quickly organize elections in which he would not run. But within months it became clear that he did not intend to step down, prompting massive protests.
On Sept. 28, members of the presidential guard opened fire on unarmed demonstrators gathered inside the national soccer stadium, killing at least 157, according to human rights groups. Women were gang-raped by soldiers chanting slogans in support of Camara.
The shocking display of brutality prompted the European and the African Unions to impose sanctions on Guinea, including an arms embargo and a travel ban and asset freeze on top members of the junta.
Even before the massacre, diplomats had been negotiating exile for Camara, similar to the scenario initially offered to Liberian warlord Charles Taylor, who lived for several years in a posh villa in Nigeria before being arrested. A top European ambassador who asked for anonymity in keeping with protocol said he had even contacted his country's foreign ministry to see if the European nation could host Camara. A Malian diplomat in Guinea said his government had expressed a willingness to welcome Camara.
The four countries considered seriously, say two foreign diplomats involved in the discussions, were Libya, Burkina Faso, Mali — and Morocco.
Of the four, Morocco is an obvious choice because of the country's long-standing relationship with Guinea. Conte was treated in Morocco for the undisclosed illness that eventually killed him, Pham said.
But Camara was never interested in exile and repeatedly made it clear that he intended to hang on, including to U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Africa William Fitzgerald who came to Guinea and told Camara that he needed to step down after the stadium massacre, according to a non-U.S. diplomat who was briefed on the visit. Some diplomats even considered a cash payout.
"Say you give Dadis $50 million and a villa in Morocco," said a foreign diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press. "That's still a huge savings for the international community compared to the cost of a military intervention or a peacekeeping force — which will go into the hundreds of millions."
Several countries, including some of Guinea's neighbors who fear that instability in Guinea could spread, began to put out feelers about the possibility of a military intervention. Fearing for his safety, Camara imported Israeli security contractors to train an ethnic militia composed of men from his tribe in a bid to secure his power base.
It seemed like an impossible stalemate until Dec. 3, when the head of the presidential guard shot Camara. He was flown to Morocco the next day.
Mohammed Ibn Chambas, an official with the 15-state regional bloc representing West Africa, said shortly after Camara went into surgery that he was an "obstruction."
"The regional position is that we don't see Captain Dadis Camara as playing a constructive role," he told reporters at a London press conference. "No, he is quite frankly an obstruction. He is part of the problem not the solution. We would like to move on."
Chambas leads the international contact group that is meeting with a delegation from the junta on Sunday. The negotiators led by Chambas, with pressure from the U.S. and the European Union, are expected to push the junta to agree on a concrete roadmap for democratic elections to restore civilian rule.
Experts say that two wild cards remain, including the succession of power. In Camara's absence, his deputy has stepped in. It's unclear if Gen. Sekouba Konate, believed to be loyal to Camara, will be willing to hand over power of the mineral-rich nation to civilians. One encouraging sign is that he sent an emissary to speak to a top opposition leader the same day Camara was evacuated to Morocco.
A second unknown is what will happen if Camara recovers from surgery. As head of state, he has diplomatic immunity. There is no international warrant for his arrest. However, a United Nations commission that was in Guinea this month investigating the army-led massacre is expected to recommend prosecution in its upcoming report.
If Camara is named responsible for the killings, the International Criminal Court could issue a warrant — forcing Morocco to detain him. Diplomats are divided on whether Morocco will detain him without legal cause.
Pham, who wrote several articles about Conte's prolonged illness, said the Guinean government bought at least three villas in Morocco for Conte's use during his final years, including one intended for medical visits. It's located just minutes from the hospital in Rabat, Morocco's capital, where Camara is being treated, he said.
"If Morocco decides to keep him, they won't even have to foot the tab of putting him up — they can just put him on a gurney and wheel him over to the villa," Pham said.
One option: Offer Capt. Moussa "Dadis" Camara a villa in another African country to get him to leave the nation he has terrorized for the past 11 months.
Now that Camara is in a Morocco hospital with a bullet wound to the head, some diplomats and experts say this is the best thing that could have happened to Guinea, offering the West African country a chance to rid itself of military rule. They say that even if the rogue leader does fully recover, the international community will pressure Morocco to keep him from returning.
"The international community was looking for a way to ease him out," said Africa expert Peter Pham, director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs at James Madison University. "When it became clear he didn't want to leave, they were even looking into the possibility of shelling him out. This turn of events has just made it a lot easier. Now he is out of the way."
A delegation of foreign diplomats, including a top U.S. State Department official, will meet Sunday to try to hammer out a plan to return Guinea to civilian rule. The meeting in neighboring Burkina Faso is the most recent in ongoing negotiations between the military junta and the country's opposition aimed at finding a solution to Guinea's political crisis.
The talks have so far failed to produce a clear timetable for when the military will step down. But those returning to the negotiating table this weekend say the dynamics have changed now that Camara appears to be incapacitated.
The 45-year-old has not spoken publicly since being shot in the head by his top aide on Dec. 3, leading many to speculate he is in a coma. The country's spokesman said he will return to Guinea "soon," but a doctor who saw Camara's CAT scan said the leader suffered a serious brain injury and is unlikely to return for a long time — if ever.
Camara seized power in a coup nearly a year ago, just hours after the death of the country's former strongman Lansana Conte. He promised to quickly organize elections in which he would not run. But within months it became clear that he did not intend to step down, prompting massive protests.
On Sept. 28, members of the presidential guard opened fire on unarmed demonstrators gathered inside the national soccer stadium, killing at least 157, according to human rights groups. Women were gang-raped by soldiers chanting slogans in support of Camara.
The shocking display of brutality prompted the European and the African Unions to impose sanctions on Guinea, including an arms embargo and a travel ban and asset freeze on top members of the junta.
Even before the massacre, diplomats had been negotiating exile for Camara, similar to the scenario initially offered to Liberian warlord Charles Taylor, who lived for several years in a posh villa in Nigeria before being arrested. A top European ambassador who asked for anonymity in keeping with protocol said he had even contacted his country's foreign ministry to see if the European nation could host Camara. A Malian diplomat in Guinea said his government had expressed a willingness to welcome Camara.
The four countries considered seriously, say two foreign diplomats involved in the discussions, were Libya, Burkina Faso, Mali — and Morocco.
Of the four, Morocco is an obvious choice because of the country's long-standing relationship with Guinea. Conte was treated in Morocco for the undisclosed illness that eventually killed him, Pham said.
But Camara was never interested in exile and repeatedly made it clear that he intended to hang on, including to U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Africa William Fitzgerald who came to Guinea and told Camara that he needed to step down after the stadium massacre, according to a non-U.S. diplomat who was briefed on the visit. Some diplomats even considered a cash payout.
"Say you give Dadis $50 million and a villa in Morocco," said a foreign diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press. "That's still a huge savings for the international community compared to the cost of a military intervention or a peacekeeping force — which will go into the hundreds of millions."
Several countries, including some of Guinea's neighbors who fear that instability in Guinea could spread, began to put out feelers about the possibility of a military intervention. Fearing for his safety, Camara imported Israeli security contractors to train an ethnic militia composed of men from his tribe in a bid to secure his power base.
It seemed like an impossible stalemate until Dec. 3, when the head of the presidential guard shot Camara. He was flown to Morocco the next day.
Mohammed Ibn Chambas, an official with the 15-state regional bloc representing West Africa, said shortly after Camara went into surgery that he was an "obstruction."
"The regional position is that we don't see Captain Dadis Camara as playing a constructive role," he told reporters at a London press conference. "No, he is quite frankly an obstruction. He is part of the problem not the solution. We would like to move on."
Chambas leads the international contact group that is meeting with a delegation from the junta on Sunday. The negotiators led by Chambas, with pressure from the U.S. and the European Union, are expected to push the junta to agree on a concrete roadmap for democratic elections to restore civilian rule.
Experts say that two wild cards remain, including the succession of power. In Camara's absence, his deputy has stepped in. It's unclear if Gen. Sekouba Konate, believed to be loyal to Camara, will be willing to hand over power of the mineral-rich nation to civilians. One encouraging sign is that he sent an emissary to speak to a top opposition leader the same day Camara was evacuated to Morocco.
A second unknown is what will happen if Camara recovers from surgery. As head of state, he has diplomatic immunity. There is no international warrant for his arrest. However, a United Nations commission that was in Guinea this month investigating the army-led massacre is expected to recommend prosecution in its upcoming report.
If Camara is named responsible for the killings, the International Criminal Court could issue a warrant — forcing Morocco to detain him. Diplomats are divided on whether Morocco will detain him without legal cause.
Pham, who wrote several articles about Conte's prolonged illness, said the Guinean government bought at least three villas in Morocco for Conte's use during his final years, including one intended for medical visits. It's located just minutes from the hospital in Rabat, Morocco's capital, where Camara is being treated, he said.
"If Morocco decides to keep him, they won't even have to foot the tab of putting him up — they can just put him on a gurney and wheel him over to the villa," Pham said.
No comments:
Post a Comment